Monday, June 24, 2013

PH stock index nears ‘bear’ territory at 5,971.05

Global markets slump, too, due to concerns over China, US monetary policies

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Screengrab from www.pse.com.ph
MANILA, Philippines — The local stock market barometer broke down the 6,000 barrier on Monday, now at the brink of returning to “bear” territory as concerns on China and US monetary policy continued to hammer global markets.
The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange index shed 211.12 points or 3.42 percent to close at 5,971.05.   The index has pulled back by about 19 percent since hitting the peak of the recent bull run at 7,400 in mid-May.
A market is technically deemed to have reversed from a bull to a bear market when it has pulled back by 20 percent from the peak.
All counters were deeply in the red led by the financial (-4.69 percent) and mining/oil (-4 percent) counters.
With the PSEi breaking 6,000, this now puts the 5,500-5,800 levels at risk, according to Banco de Oro Unibank chief strategist Jonathan Ravelas.
Value turnover for the day amounted to P8.56 billion.  There were 165 decliners that overwhelmed 17 advancers while 34 stocks were unchanged.
The day’s biggest index decliner was MWC (-11 percent). The company’s bid to enter the Indonesian market is currently at risk due to signals from the leaders of Jakarta to instead nationalize the capital’s water concessions.
Other big index decliners for the day were Bloomberry and MPI, which both fell by over 8 percent while Belle fell by over 7 percent. Megaworld, Metrobank and Philex all slid by over 6 percent while AGI, Jollibee, Belle and AC faltered by over 5 percent.

Friday, June 14, 2013

RELIEF IN THE PHILIPPINE STOCK MARKET


For a day, the Philippines' Stock Index slightly woke up to end market trading at 6,242.26.
To know more, please see below Market Update from ABS CBN News:

PSEi rebounds on Friday

Posted at 06/14/2013 3:44 PM | Updated as of 06/14/2013 3:44 PM

MANILA -- Shares slightly rebounded on Friday, after suffering its worst fall since 2008 during the previous session.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index rose 2.10% or 128.18 points to 6,242.26, while the broader all-shares index climbed 1.64% or 62.89 points to 3,897.76.

All sub-indices were in the green, led by the services industry, which went up 2.40% or 44.54 points to 1,901.23.
Advancers beat decliners, 111 to 50, while 41 issues remained unchanged.

Total volume traded reached 1 billion valued at P10.86 billion.

The most active stocks on Friday were led by Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (+2.23%), SM Investments Corp. (+4.26%), Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (+1.15%), SM Prime Holdings Inc. (+4.13%), and BDO Unibank Inc. (2.45%).
Meanwhile, the biggest gainers were Jolliville Holdings Corp. (+16.67%), Mariwasa Siam Holdings Inc. (+13.04%), and Waterfront Philippines Inc. (+11.76%).

Top losers on Friday were MJCI Investments Inc. (-40%), Manila Jockey Club Inc. (-12.61%), and Keppel Philippine Holdings Inc. (-10%).

Previous selling in the market was owed to foreign investors fleeing emerging economies such as the Philippines as the US economy improves.

Despite the daily gain of the PSEi, the index was 6.9% or 459.69 points below the 6,701.95-finish the previous week.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

PH Stock Index Still Soaring; Hits 7,300


PH stock index breaches 7,300 for first time in history

Credible elections, gaming stocks rebound cited

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MANILA, PhilippinesInvestors loaded up on stocks of big local companies on Tuesday in the aftermath of the country’s mid-term elections, bringing the main index beyond the 7,300-mark for the first time.
The main-share Philippine Stock Exchange racked up 51.08 points or 0.7 percent to close at a new all-time high of 7,313.46, led by banking and gaming stocks. A new intra-day high was likewise hit at 7,349.95.
PSE chairman Jose Pardo said: “7,500 here we come. New highs can be expected after a credible and honest election.”
This marked the PSEi’s 30th record breakout for the year and the 91st under the Aquino administration.
“The market rallied on the back of relatively smooth elections and good first quarter earnings results so far. Top three banks — Metrobank, BPI and BDO — contributed half of the day’s PSEi gain,” said Gonzalo Ordonez, president of First Metro Securities.
Metrobank, BDO and BPI respectively surged by 3.42 percent, 2 percent and 1.46 percent. The top three banks recently reported record-high first quarter results, with strong trading gains adding to net interest earnings.
Gaming stocks Bloomberry (+2.79 percent) and Belle (+2.76 percent) were likewise among the top index gainers.
Joseph Roxas, president of local stock brokerage Eagle Equities, said this was due to discussions towards a “win-win” compromise on gaming. He said hopes for a favorable resolution on gaming taxes alongside the reaffirmation of support for candidates under the Team PNoy banner boosted the market.
Biz Buzz reported on Monday that the gaming industry was seeing the “light at the end of the tunnel” on this gaming taxation issue.
Meanwhile, a big win for Team PNoy administration candidates, particularly in the Senate, is seen as crucial for the government to pursue the reforms that have boosted investor confidence in the last three years.
Total value turnover at the market stood at P10 billion.
Despite the overall index gain, there were just as many decliners as there were advancers (81) while 50 stocks were unchanged. This was as investors focused on large-cap stocks.
Index heavyweight PLDT (+2.62 percent) also contributed to the day’s gains alongside Ayala Land Inc., Ayala Corp., SM Investments, Megaworld and URC.
Outside the index stocks, LTG, GT Capital, TransAsia and Cosco also gained in heavy volume.
On the other hand, the companies whose stocks fell in heavy volume were MPIC, Security Bank, Semirara and ICTSI.

Monday, May 13, 2013

PESO MONEY TREE



Money Tree is a one-pay investment and life insurance plan that can earn more than bank deposits over the long term.

To know more, please visit: 
http://philamlifemoneytree.blogspot.com/

Friday, May 10, 2013

UNIT LINKED FUND PERFORMANCE, AS OF MAY 3, 2013


Please see the link below to view our most recent ULP Fund Report, 5/3/2013

 Philam Life Fund Report, 5/3/13


See you next week for our next update.

Friday, May 3, 2013

S&P Affirmation of PH Credit Rating



INVESTMENT GRADE

S&P gives PH second credit ratings upgrade

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MANILA, Philippines—The Philippines is on a roll.
After being given bullish growth prognoses from various institutions and getting its first investment grade from Fitch Ratings, the Philippines was lifted out of the junk bond status by another international credit-rating agency on Thursday.
Standard & Poor’s on Thursday said in a statement that it had raised the country’s credit rating by a notch from BB+ to BBB- —the minimum investment grade—citing the country’s rosy macroeconomic fundamentals amid global economic problems.
S&P assigned a “stable” outlook on the country’s new rating, which means the rating will likely be unchanged over the short term barring unexpected developments that could change the country’s macroeconomic indicators.
The upgrade was cheered by Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima—the head of the administration’s economic team—who noted that S&P’s move marked the 13th positive rating action since the Aquino administration assumed office in mid-2010.
Purisima hailed it as “another resounding vote of confidence in the Philippines” and an affirmation that the local economy’s soundness was at par with countries rated investment grade or higher.
“We are very pleased that S&P, along with Fitch [Ratings], has also affirmed the Philippines’ strong economic and fiscal gains—progress that has been made thanks to the discipline and prudence in financial management instilled by President Aquino in his administration,” Purisima said.
Bangko Sentral Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said the investment ratings from Fitch and S&P were expected to further lift investor sentiment on the Philippines. He said the favorable sentiment would translate into actual investments over the short to medium term, and would help to make the Philippines catch up with its Southeast Asian neighbors in terms of foreign direct investments.
“With our investment grade rating, we are more confident that these inflows, particularly of more FDIs [foreign direct investments], will swing toward increasing the country’s productive capacity, thereby generating more employment and higher incomes,” Tetangco said.
A credit rating is used mainly by foreign creditors when deciding to lend money to the government or private corporations. More broadly, however, an investment grade signals to the investors that a country is a place suitable for business, and that its government and private enterprises have a good ability to pay their obligations, resulting in lower borrowing costs.
“The upgrade on the Philippines reflects a strengthening external profile, moderating inflation, and the government’s declining reliance on foreign currency debt,” S&P credit analyst Agost Benard said in the statement.
Thursday’s upgrade leaves Moody’s Investor Service as the only one among the three major agencies that has not relieved Philippine government-issued international debt paper of their junk bond status.
‘Most underrated’
But Purisima said that based on actual borrowing sorties in the past two years, creditors were rating Philippine bonds at least two notches above investment grade.
“Based on Moody’s own bond implied ratings, we are among the most underrated countries by Moody’s,” he said. “I am confident it will catch up soon.”
Purisima added that with this latest development, the government must redouble efforts to remove the remaining constraints to economic growth “if we are to reach even greater heights.”
He was referring to efforts related to improving the country’s infrastructure, and further improving revenue collections and opening up the economy to international trade and investments.
The improvement in the credit rating and growth estimate for the Philippines comes as global economic problems, led by the eurozone crisis, dampened outlooks on many countries.
The S&P upgrade on the Philippines also came with its announcement that it had lowered its outlook on the BB+ rating of Indonesia—Asean’s largest economy—from “positive” to “stable” amid the drag caused by unfavorable external environment. A rating of BB+ is a notch below investment grade.

84B dollar reserves
S&P said the Philippine ability to pay its debts to foreign creditors had strengthened, as evidenced by the country’s dollar reserves. These reserves, which currently stand at about $84 billion, are driven largely by remittances from expatriate Filipinos, foreign investments in the business process outsourcing sector and foreign investments in peso-denominated securities.
The credit rating firm likewise noted the Philippine government’s declining debt burden, which it attributed to a nearly decade-long effort to improve tax collection, combined with the growth of the economy.
After hitting a peak of 74 percent in 2004, the ratio of the government’s outstanding debt to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) had declined steadily to about 50 percent by the end of 2012 and is projected by S&P to fall further to 47 percent by the end of this year.
“The current and previous administrations improved fiscal flexibility through restraining expenditures, reducing the share of foreign currency debt, deepening domestic capital markets and more recently through modest revenue gains,” S&P said.

Major weakness
The credit rating agency, nonetheless, cited a major weakness of the Philippine economy—the low per-capita income—which it said the government should focus on addressing.
S&P estimated that the country’s per capita income (the total value of the economy’s output divided by the population) would settle at $2,850 this year, a level lower than those of most countries with the same credit rating.
“The Philippine economy’s low income level remains a key rating constraint. The concentrated nature of the economy, infrastructure shortfalls and restrictions on foreign ownership, which deter foreign investment, are factors that hamper growth,” S&P said.
S&P said the country needed to generate more investments in order to provide jobs to people in the low-income segment and lift the per capita income.
Liberalize regulations
To generate investments, the country must liberalize its regulatory environment in a manner that allows easier entry of foreign investors, according to S&P. It also said the country must invest more in infrastructure, which businesses need for easier transportation of goods.
The credit rating firm, nonetheless, said there was a good chance that the Philippines would be able to increase per capita income over the medium to long term, especially if the country addresses infrastructure and regulatory problems.
“Real GDP per capita growth averaged 3.3 percent over the past decade—somewhat slow at this stage in the country’s development. Based on ongoing structural changes in the economy, rising private sector investment and with increased fiscal space allowing greater public spending, we expect real GDP per capita growth to rise to 4.5 percent in the forecast period to 2016,” it said.
Originally posted: 7:25 pm | Thursday, May 2nd, 2013

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Moody’s: PH a rising star



Set to be ‘one of world’s fastest growth rates’

By 

The Philippines has grabbed the spotlight amid a lackluster global economy, with a think tank describing it as a “rising star” poised to record one of the fastest growth rates in the world and a credit-rating firm raising its growth forecast for the country.
Moody’s Analytics said in a report released Wednesday that the Philippines is likely to grow between 6.5 and 7 percent this year and within the same range next year, outperforming not only the anemic advanced economies but also many robustly growing emerging markets.
It also said that if favorable economic trends continue, the growth rate for the Philippines could be close to 8 percent by 2016.
“The Philippines has been among the brightest parts of a generally gloomy global picture,” Moody’s Analytics said in the report, titled “Philippines Outlook: Asia’s Rising Star” and authored by its senior economist Glenn Levine.
It said the story of the Philippines was noteworthy, noting that the country swung from being a “perennial underachiever” in Asia until the last few years.
Moody’s Analytics, a sister company of credit rating watchdog Moody’s Investor Service, said the country’s 6.6-percent growth in 2012 was achieved despite weak growth in the United States, a crisis in the eurozone and a slowdown in China.
It said the problems of the United States, the eurozone and China—
key export markets—significantly dampened the performance of other economies last year.

Sustainable growth

The Philippines, however, managed to temper the drag of a weak external environment because of a strong household consumption, a nascent rise in private investments and a spike in government spending.

S&P’s rosy forecast

“This impressive rate of GDP [gross domestic product] growth [last year] looks sustainable, as risks are low and most sectors of the economy are growing solidly. We expect GDP growth to remain in the 6.5 to 7-percent range in 2013 and 2014, making the Philippines one of the world’s fastest-growing economies,” Moody’s Analytics said.
Echoing a similar tune, international credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s has raised its growth forecast for the Philippines for this year from 5.9 to 6.5 percent. At the same time, it said the economy was expected to post another robust growth of 6.3 percent in 2014.
S&P’s updated growth projections for the Philippines were cited in its latest report on Asia, which it said would grow by a decent pace this year and next year as a region. But, it said, the impact of external factors on individual countries would vary.

Domestic demand strong

The credit rating agency said the advantage of the Philippines—together with a few neighbors namely China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam—was that domestic demand was strong and so any adverse impact of weak global demand on the country’s exports would not significantly harm its overall growth.
“China and the Asean 5—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam—are more domestically driven and, therefore, continue to enjoy relatively high and stable growth rates. This is not the case elsewhere,” S&P said in the report, titled “Emerging Asia Will Grow but Won’t Be Firing on All Cylinders.”
S&P also said that unlike other countries, the Philippines and the rest of the Asean 5 were not expected to suffer from the weakening yen, a trend that has alarmed advanced economies and some Asian economies.

Weakening yen

This was because the Philippines and the four other Southeast Asian economies were net importers of goods from Japan. A weakening yen, therefore, would actually be beneficial as this would make Japanese imports cheaper.

Anticorruption agenda

Moody’s Analytics, meanwhile, highlighted the benefits of the anticorruption agenda of the Aquino administration.
It said the reform programs of the current administration had significantly improved business sentiment in the Philippines.
“The government’s 2011-2016 development plan provides a five-year blueprint for growth and development, providing transparency, predictability and accountability. The crackdown on corruption and encouragement of local and foreign investments, in particular, have worked well,” it said.

Monday, April 22, 2013

PSEi breaks 7,000-mark



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A general shot of the Philippine Stock Exchange in Makati. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO
MANILA, Philippines – The local stock market raced to new record highs on Monday, allowing the main index to breach the 7,000-mark for the first time, on optimism over first quarter local corporate earnings reporting season.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index rallied by 75.86 points, or 1.09 percent, in the morning trade to 7,032.96.
“The PSEi breached the 7,000 level and continues to be one of the ‘it’ markets of 2013. Bullish sentiment has taken over as first quarter earnings releases go into full swing,” said Mark Angeles, head of research at First Metro Securities.
Some dealers said expectations that a second global credit rating firm may issue an investment grade rating on the Philippine sovereign as early as May also excited investors.
The upcoming monetary setting of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on Thursday, whereby another hefty cut in the rates on special deposit accounts is widely expected, is also seen driving some yield-seeking investors to equities.
SM and Ayala stocks traded higher in heavy volume in early session. SMIC (+2.22 percent) and BDO (+2.71 percent) were boosted by BDO’s record-high P20.4-billion profit guidance for 2013, of which P10 billion had been achieved in the first quarter.
Ayala Corp. (+3.95 percent), Ayala Land (+0.95 percent) and BPI (+1.83 percent) also rose on upbeat outlook and fresh expansion plans.